What Is the Definition of Catastrophic Event
Most of them have insurance, and only a small percentage face a catastrophic illness. Furthermore, in the light of the above, a low probability of intolerable events may be considered a necessary but not sufficient condition for protection against such events. But I can say that the catastrophic consequences of this man`s actions could not have been worse if he had been a saboteur. The rupture of a dam with rapid release of stored water can be a catastrophic event. Fortunately, in the last half of the twentieth century, there were no ruptures related to earthquakes of large dams, but there were two near misses and several failures of small dams. A near-miss near Los Angeles in 1971 highlighted the vulnerability of earthen dams built by hydraulic filling techniques. This event led to the development of techniques for the analysis of these dams and new efforts to improve the performance of existing dams built in this way. Similarly, a near rupture of a concrete arch dam in India in 1967 stimulated the study of such dams. It should be noted that the Pacoima Dam, a large arch dam near Los Angeles, has twice experienced very strong seismic tremors without any threat of damage.
When trying to imagine possible future catastrophic events with very little probability, but still possible, the following cases could be used as examples: The result was catastrophic for the poor and working poor. In the future, antibiotic resistance could have catastrophic consequences. Like events recorded in other Phanerozoic systems, one can often wonder how Devonian events interrupted the “normal” ups and downs of biodiversity over time (taxonomic gravity) and how ecosystem structure changed before and after crises (ecological gravity). Nevertheless, these events became important temporal markers in the Devonian, as evidenced by the broad application of the concept of event stratigraphy, for which the compilations of O. Walliser and M. House are excellent witnesses. Looking at the action of selecting a part in a coin box, it can be assumed that for a blind extraction of a part, the result “head or tail” will be incidental. However, if the initial conditions of the operation are known (e.B.
Position of parts and position of the hand), as well as the speed and direction of hand movement and the rules followed to remove the part from the box (for example. B the first piece touched by the hand is picked up without turning it), the result of the extraction could be accurately evaluated. The fact is that in the operation that has just been described, in most cases, all this data is not known and the result must be considered “incidental” due to our ignorance. “Coincidence” is the great mysterious factor in future events, along with their probability. Every year, various catastrophic events cause significant losses for the insurance industry. For example, natural disasters (III, 2015) in 2014 caused a total of about $110 billion and 7700 deaths, although the number of events was low compared to other recent years. Of all the different types of catastrophic events that cause losses to the industry, earthquakes and hurricanes in general contribute the most. For example, nine of the 10 costliest disasters in the world since 1950 have been earthquakes and hurricanes (III, 2015). However, flood risk has become a major player in recent years (e.B floods in Thailand in 2011).
Therefore, it is of the utmost importance to accurately model these disasters in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of losses and reduce uncertainty in this estimate. This article focuses in particular on modelling earthquakes and hurricane damage and examines in detail the uncertainties associated with loss estimates. Offshore pipelines are closed at the end of their useful life or due to a catastrophic event such as a hurricane. In conventional operation, pipeline decommissioning is generally considered to be an inexpensive and low-tech activity that involves relatively simple, easy and quick procedures to perform under normal conditions. This usually involves cleaning the line by moulting or rinsing, cutting off the ends of the pipeline, and then clogging and burying each endpoint under the seabed or when coating with a concrete mattress. The vast majority of decommissioned pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States have been abandoned, but new regulations in designated areas of significant sediment resources may require pipelines to be removed so as not to interfere with other uses of the outer continental shelf. Factors influencing pipeline decommissioning and examples of cost estimates conclude the chapter. The first requirement that seems necessary is that once one of these events occurs or has been discovered in the past, measures are taken on all other exposed plants to resist it.
Should we create a “sixth level” of Defense in Depth to deal with these events? It is a strong word for terrible, harmful, devastating things. Tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis are catastrophic weather events. A depression is catastrophic for the economy. In sport, when the star player is injured, it`s catastrophic for the team. When a parent dies, it`s catastrophic for a family. Scientists fear that climate change will have catastrophic effects on the planet. Catastrophic events are serious and terrible. Hitting your toe is not catastrophic: losing your leg in an accident.
One of the most common abuses of probability distributions is to ignore the presence of extremist events, in addition to events that are more or less regularly distributed, such as along a Gaussian or similar probability density curve. When modeling catastrophic events, it may be important to assess the magnitude of the loss, as a given loss is greater than a predetermined amount (probable maximum loss). Using a tungsten demonstration, demonstrations.wolfram.com/TailConditionalExpectation/ distribution determines the probability that a loss resulting from an event will exceed an amount deemed acceptable or unacceptable by the decision-maker (Figures 7 and 8). The term 50-year return period means that the analyst is interested in looking at events that are more important than anything that will occur on average over an average period of 50 years. In this example, the red dotted line indicates the exceedance value and the blue line indicates the conditional queue wait, which is calculated using numeric integration. For the generalized Pareto distribution of GPD, the following examples (for the 50 and 1000 year yield periods, respectively) describe the results. The units of GDP are irrelevant because they depend on the shape of the tails of the Pareto distribution. Another possible pitfall in the practical application of probability ratings is described in a recent publication by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “The Black Swan” (Taleb, 2007). A black swan is, in short, an isolated event of great effect that does not fall within the realm of normal expectations, because nothing in the past can indicate with a good degree of plausibility its possibility that this could happen. The name “Black Swan” was chosen because before the discovery of Australia, the inhabitants of the Old World were convinced that all swans were white. Professor Taleb also points out that in the world of possibilities, there are two provinces: Mediocristan and Extremistan. The Mediterranean is the province dominated by mediocre events, where no event can have a significant impact on the whole.
The bell-shaped Gaussian probability distribution curve has its foundations for Mediocrity. The extremist, on the other hand, is the kingdom of black swans. Fig. 18.1 attempts to show an example of both types of events in an image (event intensity different by a factor of 100, LOG(100)=2). In 1979, a catastrophic event occurred on the continental slope of Nice (Côte d`Azur), causing loss of life and significant material damage. Catastrophic events associated with volcanic activity can create marine watersheds in a variety of ways. When volcanic materials are expelled upwards and create a vacuum, or when the released magma cools and is deformed in various ways, depressions and cavities form. If these depressions are not drained, they may contain a lake (Fig. 3-9). Due to the basaltic nature of these watersheds and their often very limited watersheds, many lakes associated with volcanic activity contain low concentrations of nutrients and are relatively unproductive. Stochastic disturbances and catastrophic events such as volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis can result in the direct loss of anchial habitats in Hawaii.
Coastal areas can be directly exposed to storm surges and flooding associated with severe storms and wipe out swimming pools by transporting and removing sand and debris (Brock, 2004). In addition, storm surge can also lead to the introduction of predators such as invasive fish from affected anchialine tanks into pristine tanks. Recent volcanic activity at the Kīlauea volcano in 2018 led to the natural destruction of a number of pools from Anchialine to Pohoiki on the island of Hawaii by lava filling. However, as volcanic activity has decreased, biologists have found at least seven newly formed anchialine pools, some of which are already inhabited by Halocaridina, along the black sand beach created at the same event (Sakihara, 2020, personal communication, November 13), allowing for the rare opportunity to begin the process of ecological succession in microbial and shrimp communities among the newly created habitats of the Hawaiian anchialine ecosystem (Santos, 2021, personal communication). Our intelligence and law enforcement apparatuses demand accuracy, precision and justice. I am encouraged by the fact that the FBI has updated its classification of this near-catastrophic event to reflect the attacker`s actual motivations, and I commend Director Wray for overseeing this correction, I will continue to work with the bureau to investigate what led to the original “suicide by police officers” provision. .